"An analysis distributed by UBS Investment Bank after the State of the Union speech stated: 'Investors should proceed as if the health care effort is dead.'"

See the posting from Nov 14, as well as this article from The Huffington Post, for more on Wall Street's predictions of how healthcare reform could affect the stocks of the big 5 health insurers.

Jan 27, 2010 10:00 am
If you missed NBC's Dateline presentation "Critical Condition," here's the link.

Jan 27, 2010 9:00 am
Posted by Ming Shem Lu
Call Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and your Senators today, and call to thank Reps. Chellie Pingree and Jared Polis (see posting below).

The Capitol switchboard: (202) 224-3121

Jan 27, 2010 8:30 am
As we wait to hear what President Obama has to say about healthcare reform in his State of the Union speech tonight (one thought: reforming healthcare is about saving our economy), focus has shifted from the House to the Senate as there are signs the Representatives and their leadership are coalescing around the idea of voting for the Senate bill and then bringing key provisions through the reconciliation process.

They want the Senate to show its willingness to do the same--putting key provisions such as federal vs. state exchanges, excise tax, etc. on the negotiation table. Surprise! Harry Reid and his Democratic caucus are waffling, and conservatives like Senators Evan Bayh and Blanche Lincoln already declared they are against reconciliation.

For a provision to pass reconciliation, only a 51-vote majority is needed, and the provision must be budget-related (hence abortion coverage won't be a reconciliation item).

Ryan Grim of The Huffington Post reports 2 House freshmen, Reps. Chellie Pingree (D-Maine) and Jared Polis (D-Colo.), are circulating a letter, looking for signatures, that supports putting public option through reconciliation. They plan to deliver the letter to Senator Reid on Thursday.

Polis in particular argued that healthcare reform became less popular when the public option was taken out but the mandate to purchase health insurance stayed. "I think the fading of the public option from the Senate bill really hurt the Democrats' prospects in the Senate [race], because they were seen as following the typical pattern of tax and spend and caving to insurance companies."

Jan 26, 2010
Posted by Ming Shem Lu
Faithful America is organizing a "No Time To Quit" national call-in for healthcare reform. Call their toll-free number to connect to your representative: 1-866-279-5474 (you'll first listen to a prep message from Faithful America, then you'll be asked to enter your zip code). You can also call the Capitol switchboard: (202) 224-3121.

I made 6 phone calls yesterday, to Rep. Chaka Fattah and Joe Sestak, Progressive Caucus co-chairs Rep. Raul Grijalva and Lynn Woolsey, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

I had NO problem getting through--which is not a good sign. NOT ENOUGH PEOPLE ARE CALLING!

Jan 22, 2010 10:00 am
Posted by Ming Shem Lu
The White House and Congressional Democrats are all playing the game of "it's off my hands now." If healthcare reform FAILS to pass, who is accountable? ALL OF THEM! And once again the Democrats are the party that FAILS TO GET THE JOB DONE.

Read more in this series of article in Talking Points Memo: The White House's "Who's the chief executive? Scott Brown?" approach. And the Senate-House tug-of-inaction.

See also the latest tally sheet prepared by Talking Points Memo, of which House members have said they are prepared to go forward and how.

When I read moveon.org's poll from Tuesday's Massachusetts election, at first I didn't understand why Obama supporters would vote for someone like Scott Brown, specifically why supporters of healthcare reform (49% of those polled) would vote for someone who stated clearly he would be the 41th vote to derail it. To me and to many of my liberal friends, that seems so "irrational," so "illogical"!

Yesterday, when I had seen one too many progressive House Representative said on TV that in no way he would vote for the Senate bill (in this case Rep. Dennis Kucinich on The Ed Show), thus dragging on what already has been a too-long too-long process, I can understand the anger, the frustration, the VERY REAL emotion that prompted Masschusetts voters to do what they did: "if this party can't do anything, get them out." 

Jan 22, 2010 9:00 am
Posted by Ming Shem Lu
I made another 5 calls yesterday, the first one to my Representative, Chaka Fattah (D-PA). His aide confirmed Fattah was ready to vote for the Senate bill. I then called Rep Joe Sestak (D-PA), who's running against Senator Arlen Specter and possibly Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) this Fall and who's been a strong advocate of healthcare reform. He is non-committal. After Tuesday night, the Pennsylvania Senate race looks like it will be hotly contested as the Massachusetts one--both Democrats will face voters' anger if they FAIL to get the job done.

My third phone call was to the Washington office of House Speaker Pelosi. Just as I started saying to the live person who answered the phone, "I urge...," without uttering another word she transferred me to voicemail. What customer service! My last 2 calls were to the co-chairs of the House Progressive Caucus--Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D-CA). Both have said in public statements they won't vote for the Senate bill.

Jan 21, 2010 9:30 am
Read this column by Martha Stewart in The Huffington Post on "The Other Healthcare Crisis--America's Elderly"

In the last paragraph she sums up why we all have a stake in the state of elderly care (and of healthcare in general): "We're all in this together. Whether or not you care about policy or older people, you will, if you're lucky, be one of them. It's not just a demographic. It's personal--it's you, your parents, your aunts, uncles, friends and children. We need to do a better job caring for this population--and supporting those who care for them."

Jan 21, 2010 9:00 am
Senate Democrats unveiled their new talking point: Blame the Republicans for failure to pass healthcare reform. Brian Beutler of Talking Points Memo reports that a memo was released yesterday with these words: "It is mathematically impossible for Democrats to pass legislation on our own. Senate Republicans to come to the table with ideas for improving our nation and not obstructionist tactics."

The Democrats can try blaming the other side, voters will still place a major share of responsibility on the majority party. Two readers of Talking Points Memo sum up the public mood:

One writes: "What really bothers me about the Dems' epic collapse, more than anything, is how easily they gave up. Not even on a political level, but on a human level, it boggles the mind."

The other: "This legislation was historic. A monumental achievement that would, and I still hope will, save thousands of lives and save thousands from medical bankruptcy. They were weeks, if not days, from passing this epic legislation and with one stumble, they throw up their hands and declare that the bill is doomed. How can you work so hard on something, spend so much time and man hours, get so close, and at the first hint of trouble, walk away like that? Where is the courage of their convictions? They have none. They're cowards.

"To me, it's like getting ten feet from the summit of Mount Everest, tripping on some ice and declaring that not only can you not make it any further, but that surely you are doomed to die of frostbite on the mountain. Well, if you just lay there feeling sorry for yourself, surely you will. But if you dust yourself off and keep walking, you'll probably be fine."

Jan 20, 2010 9:00 pm
Readers on Talking Points Memo--especially those from liberal districts--said they have been calling their elected officials.

One reader writes: "A lot of folks (including me) who live in liberal districts were sort of leaving it to Obama to push for reform. As long as he was there, what need was there for us to push someone who we knew was a reliable D vote. I contacted my rep (Zoe Lofgren) today for the first time (ever) and I doubt I'm the only one."

Another comments: "I want a bill. I want some concrete results. This has taken too long. Saying that you aren't satisfied with the Senate bill on the day when this entire bill is teetering on the brink of failure, is just terrible PR.

"I first called at around 11am this morning, to his D.C. office and the line was busy. I then called his Manhattan number and immediately reached a live person. I told him that I supported the Senate HCR bill and that I wanted results. The receptionist told me that he would pass on my comment to Rep. [Jerrold] Nadler. Then I called his D.C. office again, this time without a busy signal. I said the same thing, and was asked for my contact information, I assume just to get on a mailing list. I didn't really get any substantive information, but I got to vent a little and feel better.

If guys like [Anthony] Weiner and Nadler can't get behind something that can pass, then why do we elect liberal Democrats? Keep fighting!"

"And yet...the Democrats really have no alternative but to enact something. They're too far in to back out."

If we analyze what Obama and Reid said--in particular the wording--it's possible they are leaving room for this (C) option. (Let's hope so!) And Reid might just be signaling to House progressives who still say they won't vote for the Senate version: Listen, if you send this bill back to the Senate, it's dead.

One more tidbit: Rep. Barney Frank backtracked from his doomsday statement last night, saying now he's open to voting for the Senate bill. Read more here.

Jan 20, 2010 12:00 pm
Posted by Ming Shem Lu
I made 5 easy, short phone calls today, to the Washington offices of House Speaker Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Reid, my Representative and 2 Senators. Make a PLEDGE now to make those 5 (or more) phone calls every day until the healthcare reform bill passes.

Jan 20, 2010 10:00 am
NO RETREAT!!!
Those of us who support healthcare reform, WRITE or CALL our elected officials now. Click here for addresses and phone numbers. The number for the House AND Senate switchboard is (202) 224-3121.

Tell them to pass healtcare reform NOW!

Jan 20, 2010 9:00 am
Some of the sound and the fury in the aftermath of Republican Scott Brown's win in Massachusetts last night, which ended the Democrats' 60-vote majority in the Senate:

• The New York Times has a detailed analysis of who and which districts voted for Scott Brown. Support from independents who are worried about government spending seemed to be key. Also, turnout was significantly down--54%, from 73% in November 2008. In areas where Obama was strongest, turnout was about 30% lower, compared to 25% in other areas in the state--in Boston, a mostly liberal district, turnout was down 35%. It's hard to read these statistics without concluding that democrats failed to galvanize their base while losing independents' support. Most importantly, they allowed the big-spending narrative to dominate and did not fight back.
• Scott Brown made it clear he would be "the 41th Senator" to derail healthcare reform. Yet as a State Senator he voted for Massachusetts' universal healthcare legislation. Read more here in The New York Times.
• Minutes before Brown declared victory, House Democratic leaders still sounded optimistic about passing the healthcare bill. But rank-and-file House progressives are expressing reluctance to just move ahead and vote for the Senate bill. Read more here in Talking Points Memo.
• Rep. Barney Frank said in a statement that the healthcare bill will fail unless the it gets some Republican votes in the Senate: "Our respect for democratic procedures must rule out any effort to pass a health care bill as if the Massachusetts election had not happened." Frank's comments prompted Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo to write, "I've always been such a big admirer of Barney Frank, on so many different levels. So I was genuinely surprised, really shocked to see this statement he put out tonight that is just an embodiment of fecklessness, resignation, defeatism and just plain folly. The gist of his point is that that's it for healthcare reform. If a few Republican senators will come across the aisle and help maybe it will happen. But if not, that's it. Amazing. Just amazing."
• Senator Jim Webb (D-Virginia), usually more conservative than Barney Frank, made similar remarks: ""In many ways the campaign in Massachusetts became a referendum not only on health care reform but also on the openness and integrity of our government process. It is vital that we restore the respect of the American people in our system of government and in our leaders. To that end, I believe it would only be fair and prudent that we suspend further votes on health care legislation until Senator-elect Brown is seated."
• White House senior adviser David Axelrod said Democrats must press on with healthcare reform. "We need to move forward aggressively, continuing on job creation, and on financial regulatory reform. But we should finish healthcare because the caricature of that bill is there and everyone who voted for it will have to live with that. The way to deal with that is to pass the bill and let people see... the value of it." Read more here in The Huffington Post.

Just what the House will demand in exchange for some of the major concessions it will have to accept--most notably the public option--have yet to be finalized, but should become more clear in the hours and days ahead. Under discussion going into holiday recess were fairly major issues, such as whether the exchanges would be organized at the national level (as in the House bill) or at the state level (as in the Senate bill), and whether to adopt the House's earlier implementation date.

House members will huddle in a caucus conference call later this week to sort out their priorities."

Jan 4, 2010 10:00 am
Dick Polman of philly.com has written a very insightful column on how the Democrats can use passing healthcare reform to their advantage in the 2010 midterm elections.

He writes, "A Democratic health reform sales effort would not necessarily be as impossible as some assume. In December, a bipartisan NBC-Wall Street Journal poll reported that, while only 35 percent of Americans had positive feelings about the Democrats, just 28 percent felt that way about the Republicans. And even though polls typically report majority opposition to health reform, that’s misleading. Many of the naysayers are liberals who dismiss the Democratic proposals as insufficiently ambitious; indeed, a CNN poll last month found that only 39 percent of Americans view the reforms as 'too liberal.'"

Jan 4, 2010 9:30 am
Jonathan Cohn of The New Republic reports that House and Senate Democrats are "almost certain" to bypass the step of convening the "conference committee" and will instead negotiate informally on the final healthcare bill. Cohn writes, "Doing so would allow Democrats to avoid a series of procedural steps--not least among them, a series of special motions in the Senate, each requiring a vote with full debate--that Republicans could use to stall deliberations, just as they did in November and December."